According to the declarations of Bruno Le Maire, Minister of the Economy, at the end of August: “We should not expect an improvement on the inflation front before the start of 2023”. That is said. The inflation in question could climb to 10% in supermarkets by the end of the year, against 7% at the moment. For its part, INSEE predicts a net rebound in inflation of 6.8% at the end of the year. When you know that the latter is the highest ever experienced since 1985, of course… We freak out. A brief overview of the items that could cost you much more this year than usual.
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The favorite food of struggling students is already not as cheap as it was a few months ago. This year, pasta has already experienced inflation of more than 18%, and it’s not going to get any better. According to Reuters, these products are likely to run out by the end of the year. Before reaching this stage of shortage, prices will still skyrocket.
2. The baguette
Overall, all direct (pasta, flour, biscuits) and indirect (poultry and pork) cereal-based products are suffering from high inflation. If we add to the explosion in the cost of raw materials those of energy and packaging, of course… Production costs explode, and are felt at the checkout. On average, the price of a baguette has increased by 4.5% in one year, going from an average of €0.89 to €0.93. These small increases are not going away anytime soon. For their part, it is a blow for bakers who are forced to reduce their margins so as not to drive away customers. If they really postponed the price increases on their products on sale, then your baguette could cost you 30% more, or… €1.30. Lots of courage and love to all the bakers in France.
The same is true for meat, poultry and charcuterie, which experienced a jump of… 24.5%. Yes, it’s huge. In Le Parisien, a Parisian restaurateur explained that he had been forced to increase the price of a steak by 5 euros. The duck, too, sees its prices soar, after the Avian Flu epidemic which decimated entire farms. Your Christmas foie gras could cost you two arms, half a leg and half your soul this year.
Already 15.7% increase on the oil price side. For sunflower oil, Ukraine and Russia normally provide 80% of world exports. Suffice to say that at the moment, it’s a little tense. The drought and the heat wave of this summer, they will not help side olive oil. Produced mainly in Spain, the country’s agriculture ministry refuses to divulge any estimate, but an analyst estimates for The Guardian that between a quarter and a third of production will be missing in the next harvest. Be ready, the checkout will hurt us (very) badly. On the other side of the border, prices have already risen.
A brick of milk already cost 4.5% more than before the crisis. According to the economic director of the National Interprofessional Center for Dairy Economics, these increases will continue for a while. Heat waves and droughts follow one another, and the cows have less and less fresh grass to eat. Inevitably, all dairy products are impacted. Between June 2021 and June 2022, yoghurts increased by 4.5%, butter by 9.8% and cheese by 5.2%.
6. Sparkling water
The price of a Perrier on the terrace is already very bad, but believe me, it could get even worse… In the absence of enough CO2, some companies have been forced to suspend the production of sparkling water. If the price of gas continues to soar (and it is very likely) and CO2 stocks are exhausted, the product could become a scarce commodity. As with everything, when supply becomes much lower than demand, prices soar. RIP little Perrier Energize after eating.
This time, nothing to do with any geopolitical conflict. The real problem is simply climate change. Some speak of “heatflation” to define droughts, floods, frost episodes,… And just about anything that can jeopardize crops. After the shortage of mustard due to the Canadian drought, make way for coffee, of which around 30% of Brazilian crops were destroyed due to frost or flooding. News flash: the planet is in bad shape, and this kind of phenomenon could happen again and again. Be prepared to see the price of your espresso regularly hit all the scores.
8. The price of wood
Faced with the rise in the price of electricity (we will come back to this), individuals are rushing towards firewood. Result: prices are already exploding, while the month of August is barely over. In Gironde, for example, the price of wood pellets has already increased by 100%. For its part, so-called “classic” wood has already increased by 20%. Courage, the winter promises to be harsh.
We were talking about it just above, one of the biggest current inflations concerns electricity. By January 2023, it should cost more than 1000 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), against 85 euros last year, at the same period, on the wholesale markets. On the bills, the increase is, for the moment, only reasonably felt, because the government has taken various measures to limit the increase in regulated prices for the sale of electricity. Today, the perceived increase is 4% on average, compared to the 20% initially announced. Recently, the Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, tried to reassure the French by indicating that “the 4% cap will be maintained until the end of 2022, there will be no catch-up on this cap in 2023, and the increases mentioned by the President of the Republic and the Prime Minister will be contained increases“. On the other hand, we have no more information on the rate of “these contained increases”. Still according to the Minister, no scenario foresees “double-digit inflation in France”, but we should not expect an improvement in this before the start of 2023.
The situation, already tense, is not improving. In France, at the moment, only 24 of EDF’s 56 nuclear reactors are operating, mainly because of a corrosion problem. Result: French electricity production is at a historically low level.
For gas, it is difficult to position oneself, even if its price currently exceeds 300 euros per megawatt/hour. Still according to Bruno Le Maire, “Everything will depend on Vladimir Putin’s decisions on gas. If ever he decides to cut the gas for the EU and the euro zone, we assess the impact on growth, for France alone, at half a point of GDP. » At the moment, gas prices are frozen and not increasing. Without this freeze, the Regulated Sales Tariff (TRV) would have increased by 26.8% including tax (i.e. 105.10% increase in one year). The price freeze will be maintained until the end of 2022. And after? Fingers crossed so you don’t have to squeeze your ass too tightly.
11. The price of the toll
This time, it was Clément Beaune, Minister of Transport, who spoke on the subject in the columns of the JDD at the end of July. In his words, “It is inconceivable that there will be an increase next February of 7% or 8%. On the other hand, it is important to note that the contract binding the motorway companies to the State, includes “a formula for the annual revaluation of tolls taking inflation into account”. If in February 2022, the increase was 2%, it would not be surprising if in February 2023, it was 4 or 5%. Le Figaro tried to find out more, and the motorway companies refused to answer, which, let’s say, is not to reassure us.