Republican internal polling signals a Democratic rout

Republican internal polling signals a Democratic rout

It is perhaps not surprising then that when a party publishes many more internal polls than normal, it is good for it. Parties tend to publish good polls when they have them. Since 2004, there has been an almost perfect correlation (+0.96 on a scale of -1 to +1) between the share of partisan polls published by the Democrats and the November results.

Democrats and liberal groups are currently publishing far more surveys than Republicans, suggesting that public polls showing Democrats are doing well are confirmed by what the parties see in their own numbers.

The aligned Democrat and Liberal groups released 17 polls in the House conducted in April or later. The aligned Republican groups put 0. This is a very bad ratio for the Republicans.

Interestingly, Republicans dominated the electoral landscape in the first quarter of the year. From January to March, the Republican and Conservative groups published 10 polls compared to the Democrats 2.

The turning point in April corresponds well to the moment when the coronavirus pandemic became the headline of the year. It was when President Donald Trump’s approval rating began an almost continuous decline that remains unchanged.

In other words, it makes perfect sense that Democrats have begun to dominate the landscape of House elections in recent months. They had a lot of good news from their side that they wanted to see in the audience. Republicans, on the other hand, likely saw numbers that wouldn’t make them look good.

Now, you may be wondering if internal statewide polls show the same thing. After all, presidential elections are mainly won at the state level. Unfortunately, presidential campaigns do not publish their own data, and state-wide partisan polls are less likely to shape the story because there are so many public polls. However, some outside groups publish data, and we see much of the same picture as district data.

Since April, democratic and liberal groups have published 30 polls across the state during the presidential race. The Republicans released only 13. This means that the Democratic share of internal state polls was 70%.

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All but four of the polls sponsored by the Conservatives or Republicans come from monthly PAC restoration publications. And if anything, the polls this group sponsors have been among the worst for Trump recently.
It reminds me a lot of what happened just two years ago. Almost universally, it is Democrats who publicly publish their polls. They then obtained a net gain of 40 seats in the House. The Democrats also won the House popular vote by 9 points.

Indeed, the example of 2018 shows a broader pattern going back to 2004. Although Democrats tend to publish more internal polls publicly, they do very well when this advantage is overwhelming.

When the Democrats publish 70% or more of the internal polls in the House, there is a big change in their direction in terms of popular vote. Since 2004, Republicans have never published 70% or more of the internal polls in the House. The only time there was anything similar in their (2010), they won more seats in the House than in any election in the past 70 years.

When Democrats publish around 60% of the internal polls in the House, the national environment is generally quite unchanged from previous elections.

Nothing less and Republicans are likely to do well, such as the aforementioned 2010 election when the Democrats’ share of publicly released internal polls was only 35%.

Democrats would certainly adopt a political environment that is essentially the same as in 2018. Recently released figures suggest that it could be even better for them. They indicate a national political environment in which they are favored in double digits.

For the Republicans, something must change or they will explode in November.

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