Putin faces tough choice on Belarus: How to sort out Lukashenko without conceding ground
In a televised address on Monday said Lukashenko said that “recent events showed us we need to stay close to its big brother closely cooperate on all matters, including economic ones. “
In the meeting, Putin reiterated that Russia is one of Belarus to provide a loan of $ 1.5 billion in the region. The two presidents also referred to the “Slavic Brotherhood” joint military drills in Belarus, which kicked off today and return home with Putin, said Russian units in training.
Prior to the hope of having found his death in the convent of analysts of the moon, that they are in a kind of the covenant of the Lukashenko keepeth them, and in the place of the stand in a sequence, at least for now. However, it’s still uncertain what will ultimately lead to a transition of power agreement, brokered with Russia, or rather the full throated support Lukashenko.
He just sticks in vinculandi obligations to the previous Monday, he shed little light on Putin’s long-term plan will of Belarus.
“For Russia, a key from remain as they were at the beginning of this crisis are not losing Belarus to the West, not allowing unstable or prone to rash and dark of a neighboring country, not allowing people the power to force a change in the leaders’ Calflora: Giles told Consulting a senior fellow of Russia and Eurasia Program at Chatham house.
He added that Putin is to prevent the occurrence of options, including “covert and overt support for Lukashenko, or in the worst case … greater integration in an orderly management of the transition of power from one esteem is to deal with Lukashenko Moscow. ‘
The pair’s relationship severe over the past two decades a variety of reasons. In the 2000s, Lukashenko wanted to go far into the ditch effort strong image of Russia. They also argued over gas prices will be offered Lukashenko often complain about high prices of recent years in Russia. Putin observed conjugal living for, it does not offer any discount that before the union of integration, and to the increase of his government is in agreement with Belarus on a higher level in Russia, the envy, the chief of the Belarusians on the project.
But the quantity in Russia, Lukashenko is known. But Putin’s historically a fan of a regime change in countries living through a dictatorship.
“The autocratic regimes in the power of writing to his friends as much as in Moscow, but also the use of the for the most part more broadly used, so that the changes in geopolitics rather adds stability and predictability of a sudden,” said Giles. He adds that this may be the two of Putin’s most acute for the “About hallucination, that is all part of an ongoing Western campaign to overthrow regimes and the eventual target is Moscow, and the fact that when they had the West not want to be broken, and when Muammar Gaddafi and Saddam Hussein, they have a tendency to die. “
For Lukashenko step, the inherent weakness of his position for which this R means greater control of Belarus and the need to exchange the exchange with Putin in Russian might help guards.
“The Lukashenko to Russia while it has some political space,” said Franak Viacorka, not the Atlantic Council, living and fellow journalist based in Belarus. “And she institutional activity on instruments that could remove him from power, at least for the time being. Therefore, even though there is not a weak knowledge of Putin’s visit, and also demonstrated that it can still control the government security forces in the final.”
Both of these changes mean that all leaders reached through gritted teeth as a temporary agreement that Putin has to concede that Lukashenko self-worst option now takes it as fact that Lukashenko is not within his power.