Real Madrid had just lost 3-0 against Barcelona, but Carlo Ancelotti appeared calmer when they fell 3-1 in the Spanish Super Cup final, or when they lost 4-0 at the Bernabéu. All these defeats happened with Xavi Hernández on the rival bench, but Saturday’s in Dallas contains some unique ingredients that alleviate the resentment, but that can also be worrying: “The result is the least important thing. It hurts us, because it hurts us to lose, but I’ll keep the good things we’ve done”. Some had never happened.
Like the five balls to the posts, three of them from Vinicius. “It is quite rare five posts in a game. I don’t think it’s ever happened to me,” said the Italian. And it was true. Not him or almost anyone. Opta’s records of the League and the Champions League, which go back to the 2003/04 season, only contain three cases: Betis against Anderlecht in 2005, and Barça against Betis and Deportivo in the League, in 2015 and 2017. ,
The five suits also suppose something like a border of misfortune. In the five major European leagues, Opta knows of only one case in which there were more shots at the posts (6): in May 2007, at Eintracht Frankfurt-Aachen in the Bundesliga.
Beyond the shots at wood, the Dallas classic left other signs that Ancelotti seems to be building a system that allows attacking and creating chances despite not having a starting nine like Karim Benzema. At the same time, the reverse of these symptoms is the concern of generating and not finding the effectiveness of a tip of the shaft of Karim Benzema.
Madrid added 29 shots against Barcelona, 17 of them from inside the area. There has not been a similar shooting in a classic since April 1, 2006 at the Camp Nou. That day the Catalans kicked 35 times to finish 1-1, with goals from Ronaldinho and Ronaldo Nazario.
Among the mountain of shots from the Dallas classic, Madrid found chances that, according to the Opta model, were worth 3 expected goals. This metric is relevant because it detects the danger that a team generates, leaving aside the hit, which depends more on chance than the game structures that lead to the danger. At the same time, sustained high expected goal numbers and low goal numbers often point to gaps among finishers. The conclusions of a single match are not decisive, but it may be indicative to review the success record of the players who faced the best chances on Saturday, those with more than 0.10 expected goals, that is, those that end in the network 10% of the time.
If the balance of the last five league seasons is taken, Vinicius, Carvajal, Rodrygo, Joselu and Bellingham have scored less than expected by the model. Only Fede Valverde hit more, something that Karim Benzema also achieved in his last five courses. Like Messi, Neymar, Haaland, Kane, Osimhen and Mbappé, for example.
In Dallas, Ancelotti did not want to get caught up in one night’s lack of accuracy, but rather focused more on the structure that allowed his team to create danger and control the game. This was achieved with two formulas. At the beginning, that of the youngsters, who said he wanted to try, leaving Kroos and Modric out of the eleven, something that has only happened in 37 of the 510 official matches that Madrid has played with both in the squad, on 7.25 %. With Tchouameni, Valverde, Camavinga and Bellingham in the middle, Madrid finished the first half with more passes than Barça: 266 to 231. At the beginning of the second half, the Catalans regained control, and managed to accumulate 338 passes to 314 of The whites. But Kroos and Modric entered and the ratio was reversed (498 to 458). In addition, almost one in three passes from Madrid (146) were in the last third compared to one in five (91) from Xavi’s. But Barça was right, and Real was not right, despite a shootout never seen in a classic.
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